OSINT Map

Eastern flank

Where things stand: the overall threat level, live alerts and today's news, with an update every day.

Watchcon

Yellow · Significant concern

Hybrid activity above baseline with effects on alliance territory. Standing campaign assessed as ongoing, unattributed. Conventional attack not indicated as imminent.

As of 5 November 2026, 16:55 UTC

Today's news

Live alerts

No live alerts.

Sectors

  • Baltic states

    Hybrid: High · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Elevated · Trend: Rising · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on the Baltic states is high, with a rising trend and high confidence. Latvia reported two drone incursions on 1 and 3 November, the first assessed as most likely a Russian Geran and the second of unconfirmed origin, with interceptors and NATO air-policing fighters activated. Lithuania charged two men over the 18 October arson of a Starlink station, which police link to Starlink arsons in Poland and Bulgaria and treat as Russian-linked sabotage.

  • Poland

    Hybrid: Elevated · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Moderate · Trend: Rising · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on Poland is elevated, with a rising trend and high confidence. A Turkish citizen suspected of directing the 23 September arson at the Starlink station in Wola Krobowska was arrested in Germany, and Lithuanian police say one group acting for Russian services is behind the Starlink arsons in Poland, Lithuania and Bulgaria.

  • High North / Baltic Sea CUI

    Hybrid: High · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Low · Trend: Rising · High confidence

    Hybrid activity in the High North and Baltic Sea infrastructure sector reads elevated, with a steady trend and high confidence. A wave of cyberattacks on supermarket refrigeration has hit stores across Europe, including Finland, Sweden, Estonia and Norway, where manipulated freezers set off sprinklers and caused significant damage, and pro-Russian hacker groups have claimed the campaign.

  • Suwałki corridor

    Hybrid: Moderate · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Low · Trend: Steady · Moderate confidence

    Hybrid activity against the Suwałki corridor reads moderate, the standing baseline, with a steady trend and moderate confidence. Poland has sent GROM special forces and counter-terrorism police to its northeast border with Kaliningrad after warnings of possible sabotage, which is an allied response and not a hostile posture. No hostile act or observed Russian preparation is on record in the corridor itself.

  • Moldova / Transnistria

    Hybrid: Elevated · Conventional: Low · Spillover: Elevated · Trend: Easing · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on Moldova reads elevated, above the standing tempo, with a falling trend and high confidence. Moldova logged 19 airspace violations in October, six ending in drone explosions on the ground, and a further drone crossed from Odesa region toward Camenca on 4 November. A cyberattack between 19 and 23 October exposed the data of about 750,000 people, and a parliamentary committee chair says it was launched from abroad, with IP addresses traced to six countries.

  • Black Sea flank

    Hybrid: High · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Elevated · Trend: Easing · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on the Black Sea flank is high, with a steady trend and high confidence. Two drones entered Romanian airspace from Moldova on 31 October and set off alerts in six counties, and Romania issued a further extreme alert for northern Tulcea on 4 November.

  • Kaliningrad

    Hybrid: Moderate · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Low · Trend: Steady · Moderate confidence

    Hybrid activity linked to Kaliningrad reads moderate, the standing baseline, with a steady trend and moderate confidence. Russia is completing an over-the-horizon radar near Gvardeysk, about 37 km from the Polish border, with a reported range of up to 3,000 km. Poland says it thwarted a possible provocation on the Kaliningrad border overnight, and no Russian force build-up is on record.